Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf406…b112 crypto 383 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate40%157W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$12
14 days−$32
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 22% -8.8%
≤30d 321 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 20% -12.1%
≤90d 388 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 19% -12.6%
all 388 -9.9% -18.5% 40% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 19% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 10% -20.9%
15% -33.4% 6% -28.6%
20% -39.9% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses157 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)388 / 383
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 388 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $196 −$11 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $190 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $98 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$75 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $43 +$33 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records