Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf405…9df2 sports 1145 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 197d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,889 (+5%) realized +$38,814 · open +$75
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%830W / 312L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$5,759est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days−$507
14 days−$1,075
30 days+$2,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$31,703
other 2% +$768
crypto 0% +$236
tech 0% −$437
politics 0% −$260
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 65% -17.7%
≤30d 131 -4.9% -14.0% 70% 62% -7.0%
≤90d 769 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 59% -9.0%
all 1142 +1.3% -8.3% 73% 64% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 64% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 49% -14.9%
15% -25.1% 34% -23.1%
20% -32.4% 17% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$663 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$38,814
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses830 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$5,759
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1142 / 1145
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$702
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 78¢ 100¢ $500 $643 +$143 (+29%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 76¢ 100¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Kansas City Royals 69¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $201 +$37 +18%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $100 +$19 +18%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 16 $201 +$33 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $403 −$9 -2%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 14 $327 +$244 +75%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $301 +$22 +7%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $403 −$400 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $202 +$69 +34%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $303 +$138 +46%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $496 +$207 +42%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $555 −$550 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 10 $201 −$200 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $302 +$93 +31%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $101 +$26 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $200 +$15 +7%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 10 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $201 +$32 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $403 +$148 +37%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $303 −$300 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $202 +$115 +57%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $250 −$248 -99%
Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats: O/U 50.5 Jun 05 $70 +$1 +1%
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-1.5) Jun 05 $101 +$2 +2%
Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Jun 05 $31 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 04 $251 +$120 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $303 −$303 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 03 $3 +$1 +29%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 03 $2 +$1 +54%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $2 +$1 +36%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 02 $70 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 76¢ $101 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 61¢ $101 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 69¢ $101 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 81¢ $201 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 86¢ $201 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $201 18h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 85¢ $100 18h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $10 18h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 70¢ $10 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $100 39h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 97¢ $100 40h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 57¢ $203 40h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $100 41h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 87¢ $100 42h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 86¢ $201 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 73¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $201 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 83¢ $101 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 79¢ $101 2d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $101 2d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 60¢ $101 2d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $101 3d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 81¢ $101 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $101 3d
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 57¢ $23 4d
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 57¢ $203 4d
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 56¢ $101 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 93¢ $301 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 71¢ $403 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 68¢ $202 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.67 · official $774.67 (match) · 3500 history records