Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf404…1b2b other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+6%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$289
14 days+$289
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$283
other 34% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +123.9% +102.6% 100% 100% +109.1%
≤30d 2 +123.9% +102.6% 100% 100% +109.1%
≤90d 2 +123.9% +102.6% 100% 100% +109.1%
all 57 -11.2% -19.6% 25% 25% +47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 25% +47.7%
10% -27.3% 23% +33.6%
15% -34.4% 21% +20.7%
20% -40.8% 16% +8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +131% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +66% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$3 · ×10.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage407d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $148 +$215 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $73 +$75 +102%
Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FURIA win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Legacy win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will G2 win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -86%
Will Aurora win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liquid win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Falcons win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $48 $0 -1%
Will "m0NESY" get at least one 2.00+ rating on at least 1 map of the I May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
IEM Dallas: Vitality vs. Falcons May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will The MongolZ win the IEM Dallas tournament? May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. Aurora May 23 $2 +$1 +81%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will ZywOo achieve a 2.00 rating or above in the group stage of the 20 May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
IEM Dallas: GamerLegion vs. FURIA May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
IEM Dallas: FaZe vs. HEROIC May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
IEM Dallas: MOUZ vs. Falcons May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
IEM Dallas: 3DMAX vs. G2 May 21 $1 +$1 +87%
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. Aurora May 21 $1 +$1 +69%
IEM Dallas: Falcons vs. HEROIC May 21 $5 +$1 +23%
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. G2 May 21 $5 +$2 +45%
IEM Dallas: BC.Game vs. FaZe May 20 $3 +$1 +20%
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. MOUZ May 20 $3 +$1 +47%
Will s1mple achieve a 2.00 rating or above in the group stage of the 2 May 20 $3 +$3 +108%
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. FURIA May 20 $4 +$2 +46%
IEM Dallas: Aurora vs. HEROIC May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. FaZe May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Astralis win the PGL Astana Tournament? May 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $38 +$128 +336%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 17 $15 −$9 -58%
Will "donk" get at least one 2.00+ rating on at least 1 map of the PGL May 17 $8 +$7 +82%
Will The MongolZ win the PGL Astana Tournament? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spirit win the PGL Astana Tournament? May 16 $14 −$6 -42%
Will Georgia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aurora win the PGL Astana Tournament? May 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kurt Koch be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 10 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $362 25m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $148 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $148 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $73 5h
Will G2 win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? SELL Yes $0 369d
Will Liquid win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? SELL Yes $0 371d
Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 373d
Will Legacy win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes $2 373d
Will G2 win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes $2 373d
Will FURIA win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes $2 373d
Will Aurora win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes $2 373d
Will Liquid win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes $1 373d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $48 383d
Will Falcons win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 384d
Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 384d
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan BUY Inter $3 384d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 386d
IEM Dallas: Vitality vs. Falcons BUY Falcons 39¢ $8 390d
Will The MongolZ win the IEM Dallas tournament? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 391d
Will "m0NESY" get at least one 2.00+ rating on at least 1 map of the I BUY Yes 43¢ $3 392d
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. Aurora SELL The MongolZ 100¢ $3 392d
IEM Dallas: The MongolZ vs. Aurora BUY The MongolZ 55¢ $2 392d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 32¢ $2 393d
IEM Dallas: 3DMAX vs. G2 SELL G2 99¢ $3 393d
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. Aurora SELL Aurora 100¢ $3 394d
IEM Dallas: GamerLegion vs. FURIA BUY FURIA 62¢ $2 394d
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. Aurora BUY Aurora 59¢ $1 394d
IEM Dallas: 3DMAX vs. G2 BUY G2 53¢ $1 394d
IEM Dallas: FaZe vs. HEROIC BUY FaZe 53¢ $1 394d
IEM Dallas: MOUZ vs. Falcons BUY Falcons 62¢ $2 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records