Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf401…f40d crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days−$530
14 days−$497
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$938
crypto 21% +$4
other 17% −$1,591
world 5% +$404
tech 4% +$471
finance 3% −$91
sports 2% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.0% +5.8% 33% 33% -67.2%
≤30d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 36% 36% -61.4%
≤90d 14 +24.3% +12.4% 43% 36% -6.1%
all 54 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 44% -9.0%
10% -25.9% 31% -17.7%
15% -33.0% 19% -25.7%
20% -39.6% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$129 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage156d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 36¢ 36¢ $262 $266 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $52 +$52 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 +$26 +140%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$43 +414%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$53 +344%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $765 +$282 +37%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $14,840 +$938 +6%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 21 $394 +$52 +13%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 17 $400 −$209 -52%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Mar 17 $147 +$52 +35%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 22 $500 +$189 +38%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 14 $48 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 14 $88 +$39 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 14 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 14 $60 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 14 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 14 $668 +$21 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 14 $1,086 +$57 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 14 $1,932 +$44 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 14 $1,029 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 14 $173 +$30 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 14 $364 +$154 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 14 $50 −$46 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 14 $33 +$15 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 14 $194 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 14 $122 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 14 $226 +$56 +25%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January? Jan 30 $350 −$301 -86%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $1,000 −$862 -86%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of January Jan 29 $109 −$75 -69%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $203 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $267 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $204 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $101 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $21 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $81 27h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $52 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $19 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $30 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $18 5d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $20 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $15 11d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $101 47d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $26 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $65 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $71 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $160 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $26 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $193 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 65d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $201 65d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 88d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.08 · official $266.08 (match) · 463 history records