Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf400…1620 sports 476 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$969 (-7%) realized −$969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate80%383W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,117
tech 4% −$13
other 1% −$18
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
all 476 -7.0% -15.9% 80% 14% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 14% -16.9%
10% -23.9% 7% -24.8%
15% -31.3% 4% -32.1%
20% -38.0% 3% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses383 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage184d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 476 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $308 −$6 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 17 $95 −$3 -3%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 17 $13 −$2 -17%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 17 $89 −$9 -10%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 16 $140 −$4 -3%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market clos Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$8 -25%
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +2%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +2%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +4%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +1%
Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +2%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +2%
Nuggets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 240.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +4%
Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +4%
Rockets vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5 Jan 23 $5 $0 +10%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5 Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5 Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5 Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5 Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5 Jan 22 $11 $0 +2%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5 Jan 22 $11 $0 +3%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5 Jan 22 $11 $0 +3%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 222.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +4%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 227.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +6%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 223.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +8%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 224.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +8%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 226.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +9%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 225.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +10%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +2%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +5%
Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +6%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5 Jan 22 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $12 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $0 4h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $79 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $0 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $0 5h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 6h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 7h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 7h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 7h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 7h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $38 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1598 history records