Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf3fe…f137 crypto 1426 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,663 (-3%) realized −$1,665 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%691W / 734L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$516
7 days+$502
14 days+$376
30 days−$2,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% +4.6%
≤30d 600 -11.3% -19.7% 46% 46% -18.3%
≤90d 1425 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 48% -11.9%
all 1425 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 48% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 47% -20.3%
15% -29.9% 46% -28.0%
20% -36.8% 44% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,665
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses691 / 734
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1425 / 1426
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 57¢ 60¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$35 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $463 +$317 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$51 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$43 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$35 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$35 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$37 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $462 −$462 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $461 +$249 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$34 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $46 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $47 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $38.70 · 3500 history records