Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3f7…ecb3 politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$211 (-0%) realized −$217 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,162per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$21
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$91
other 42% −$151
tech 3% −$5
world 3% −$22
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
sports 0% +$21
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 110 +0.4% -9.2% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 117 +0.4% -9.2% 9% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,662) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$5 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,162
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $434 $433 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $280 $287 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,186 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 23 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,701 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,695 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,739 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $546 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,066 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,214 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $829 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,877 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $863 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,927 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,902 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,036 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 26 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,014 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $875 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $61 +$59 +97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $63 +$52 +83%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $2,143 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $434 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $436 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $437 5h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $403 21h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $404 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $404 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $405 27h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 46h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 47h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $693 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $693 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $681 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $682 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $582 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $582 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $593 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $594 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $545 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $546 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $234 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $46 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $925 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $926 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $892 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.08 · official $720.08 (match) · 395 history records