Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3f7…8c35 sports 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,486 (+593%) realized +$2,986 · open +$500
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%260W / 500L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day152.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$573
other 14% +$71
weather 14% +$31
crypto 5% +$112
politics 5% +$59
world 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 +32.0% +19.4% 18% 17% -22.8%
≤30d 760 +76.5% +59.7% 34% 32% +5.3%
≤90d 760 +76.5% +59.7% 34% 32% +5.3%
all 760 +76.5% +59.7% 34% 32% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.7% 32% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here +44.4% 30% -4.8%
15% +30.5% 28% -14.0%
20% +17.7% 26% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +170% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$2,986
Unrealized+$500
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses260 / 500
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions53
Markets (closed)760 / 818
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day152.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ $3 $137 +$134 (+4850%)
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) New Zealand 50¢ $3 $129 +$127 (+4850%)
Spread: New Zealand (-4.5) New Zealand 49¢ $3 $128 +$125 (+4800%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 20? No 34¢ $0 $92 +$92 (+34290%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+725%)
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar? Hadjar 30¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+2850%)
Will Angel Reese win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 46¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2221%)
Will Alanna Smith win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 45¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2195%)
Will Aliya Boston win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2144%)
Will Brittney Griner win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2144%)
Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2119%)
Will Skylar Diggins-Smith win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2042%)
Will Ezi Magbegor win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2016%)
Will Billie Eilish be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 33¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4657%)
Spread: Iraq (-5.5) Iraq $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) Ghana $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Spread: Londrina EC (-2.5) Londrina EC 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+221%)
Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+309%)
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+84%)
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 46¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2220%)
Will Breanna Stewart win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? Yes 42¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2016%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Over $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Savannah Louie be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +107%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -65%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs France - Team Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bertrand vs. Kuzmanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pegula vs. Cocciaretto: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Clement Chidekh vs. Sebastian Ofner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 2, 5PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -59%
Jover vs. Silva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Fucsovics vs. Fils: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $136 Week of April 6 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Misa Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Travaglia vs. Halys: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 28? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +8933%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Honor of Kings: Xianyou Gaming vs WST (BO5) - KPL Growth League Group Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Busta vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa - Completed match? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - April 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 3, 4AM ET? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +348%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Notts County FC vs. Bristol Rovers FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on March 11? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bellucci vs. Diallo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Percival (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group C Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 Week of April 27 2026 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Marcinko vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Noskova vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tom Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Ethereum above 2,055 on April 5, 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Darius Garland: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New Zealand (-4.5) BUY New Zealand $3 45m
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) BUY New Zealand $3 45m
Spread: Iraq (-5.5) SELL Iraq 98¢ $1 50m
Spread: Iraq (-5.5) BUY Iraq $3 50m
Spread: Ghana (-3.5) BUY Ghana $3 50m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $3 50m
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE $0 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE $0 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL No $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $0 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No $0 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No $1 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No $1 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No $0 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No $0 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No $0 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL KOLESIE 42¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.70 · official $526.72 (match) · 3500 history records