Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf3f7…c516 other 37 markets active 4d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$6
politics 27% −$14
tech 14% −$2
culture 12% −$1
sports 7% −$2
world 5% −$1
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$745) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage81d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 12 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $1,171 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $64 −$2 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $40 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $762 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $715 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $683 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 14 $21 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $745 −$9 -1%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $17 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL No 100¢ $1,062 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $76 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $1,052 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 5d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $825 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 5d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,084 5d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $72 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,108 6d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $22 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,058 6d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 6d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records