Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F3 0xf3f2…8904 crypto 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$279 (+4%) realized +$283 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate90%580W / 62L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$167
14 days+$199
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$147
other 16% +$26
sports 5% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.1% -3.1% 74% 52% -1.1%
≤30d 54 +4.0% -5.9% 74% 52% -0.0%
≤90d 54 +4.0% -5.9% 74% 52% -0.0%
all 642 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 33% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 33% -5.6%
10% -18.7% 4% -14.7%
15% -26.6% 2% -22.9%
20% -33.8% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$283
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses580 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)642 / 647
History coverage140d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 642 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 67¢ 58¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$5 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $110 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$25 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $221 +$54 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +25%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $229 +$6 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $180 +$49 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 40h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 40h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.05 · official $134.86 (match) · 1352 history records