trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $8 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $16 | −$3 | -18% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $25 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $4 | −$1 | -13% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $21 | −$1 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 16 | $41 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 23 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 19 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 14 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Aug 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? | Aug 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Aug 23 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 22 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 21 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Aug 20 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 20 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 17% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 17% | 0% | -14.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -8.8% | -17.5% | 17% | 0% | -14.0% |
| all | 26 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 27% | 0% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.5% | 0% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -22.7% | 0% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 0% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -37.0% | 0% | -35.1% |