Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3e2…6d83 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$68
sports 5% −$20
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -50.9% -55.6% 20% 20% -74.1%
≤30d 13 -43.8% -49.1% 23% 23% -69.0%
≤90d 16 -22.2% -29.6% 31% 31% -56.4%
all 17 -20.5% -28.1% 35% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 29% -9.2%
10% -35.0% 24% -17.8%
15% -41.2% 24% -25.8%
20% -47.0% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)17 / 28
History coverage319d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 100¢ $5 $62 +$57 (+1149%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 19¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PARIVISION win The International 2025 Tournament? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 26 $5 +$7 +140%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 09 $1 +$4 +300%
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? May 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 20 $1,100 +$75 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $6 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $10 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 BUY Under 5.5 41¢ $5 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 38d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 72d
Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? BUY No 88¢ $20 177d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY No 25¢ $1 178d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1,164 178d
Will PARIVISION win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 276d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $11 276d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $10 319d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.28 · official $136.29 (match) · 44 history records