Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3de…eea7 sports 190 markets active 6d ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-1%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%98W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$227
14 days−$128
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$261
crypto 3% −$68
other 3% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 -20.8% -28.3% 43% 43% -19.1%
≤90d 28 -20.8% -28.3% 43% 43% -19.1%
all 190 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 51% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 51% -12.1%
10% -18.4% 48% -20.5%
15% -26.3% 40% -28.2%
20% -33.5% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses98 / 92
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage323d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $22 −$22 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $54 −$53 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $37 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $115 +$85 +73%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $30 +$19 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $57 +$43 +75%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $45 −$44 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $66 +$72 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $23 +$26 +115%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $61 +$42 +69%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $35 +$45 +128%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $37 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $61 +$32 +51%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $32 +$30 +91%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $58 +$59 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$25 +82%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $19 +$11 +58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs HOTU (BO3) Oct 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-02? Oct 02 $4 +$2 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) Oct 02 $51 +$49 +96%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 02 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: Los Ratones vs Bushido Wildcats (BO1) Oct 02 $54 +$15 +29%
BLAST Open: Flyquest vs. G2 Sep 01 $2 −$2 -100%
BLAST Open: M80 vs. Natus Vincere Aug 31 $103 −$103 -100%
BLAST Open: fnatic vs. GamerLegion Aug 31 $46 −$46 -100%
League of Legends: Team WE vs. Edward Gaming Aug 31 $41 −$41 -100%
League of Legends: DRX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Aug 31 $36 −$36 -100%
BLAST Open: FlyQuest vs. Legacy Aug 30 $3 −$3 -100%
League of Legends: FunPlus Phoenix vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas Aug 30 $57 −$57 -100%
BLAST Open: Vitality vs. GamerLegion Aug 30 $52 +$8 +16%
BLAST Open: M80 vs. Virtus.pro Aug 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Cubs vs. Giants Aug 29 $85 −$85 -100%
BLAST Open: FURIA vs. Legacy Aug 28 $64 +$35 +55%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Aug 28 $64 −$64 -100%
BLAST Open: MOUZ vs. Imperial Aug 28 $41 +$11 +27%
League of Legends: JD Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Aug 28 $129 +$46 +36%
BLAST Open: FaZe vs. ECSTATIC Aug 27 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Newcastle vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Aug 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? Aug 25 $35 +$14 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $22 5d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 59¢ $54 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 36¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 53¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 53¢ $65 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 53¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 37¢ $11 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 37¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 37¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $115 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL BIG 99¢ $49 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY BIG 60¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY BIG 60¢ $18 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY BIG 60¢ $4 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $43 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $45 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $66 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 8d
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 8d
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner BUY NEW VISION 57¢ $40 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $104 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 686 history records