Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf3de…6fe8 sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,383 (+2%) realized +$5,116 · open −$1,733
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate91%135W / 14L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,150per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$548est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,823
7 days−$3,280
14 days+$1,980
30 days+$4,884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,788
other 4% +$363
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -5.2% -14.2% 83% 35% -13.1%
≤30d 149 +2.4% -7.3% 91% 38% -6.9%
≤90d 149 +2.4% -7.3% 91% 38% -6.9%
all 149 +2.4% -7.3% 91% 38% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 38% -6.9%
10% -16.2% 14% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -24.3% 6% -24.0%
20% -31.7% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,451) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$1,085 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,198
Realized+$5,116
Unrealized−$1,733
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses135 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$548
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $1,131 $1,197 +$66 (+6%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 90¢ 0¢ $1,800 $1 −$1,799 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $832 −$832 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,980 +$163 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $746 +$253 +34%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,358 +$43 +3%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3,072 +$326 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1,154 +$23 +2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $339 +$38 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $850 +$150 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $980 +$20 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $802 +$198 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $899 +$101 +11%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,800 +$200 +11%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $726 +$30 +4%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,757 +$367 +21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,465 +$127 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,688 +$31 +2%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1,425 −$1,425 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,425 +$75 +5%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $910 +$90 +10%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $250 +$250 +100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,477 +$107 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $961 +$39 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,451 +$80 +6%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $950 +$50 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,132 +$368 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,151 +$218 +10%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,001 +$32 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,003 +$113 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,876 +$124 +7%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,011 +$591 +58%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $400 +$220 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $758 +$67 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,004 +$133 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $700 −$700 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $909 −$909 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,288 +$1,481 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,425 +$75 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,850 +$148 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,820 +$180 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $846 +$154 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,507 +$304 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $237 17m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $626 17m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $188 17m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $24 18m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $56 18m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $4,143 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 99¢ $894 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 99¢ $110 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $999 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $2,931 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $36 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $1,800 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 83¢ $832 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $746 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1,154 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 94¢ $28 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 94¢ $350 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $249 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $237 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $49 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 98¢ $434 12h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $759 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $106 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $35 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $1,207 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $65 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $576 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $324 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,197.95 · official $1,197.95 (match) · 805 history records