Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3db…9d79 crypto 292 markets active 2d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-6%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%135W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$54
sports 6% −$7
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 29% -17.0%
≤30d 292 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 42% -18.8%
≤90d 292 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 42% -18.8%
all 292 -10.3% -18.9% 46% 42% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -18.8%
10% -26.6% 40% -26.6%
15% -33.7% 37% -33.7%
20% -40.2% 32% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses135 / 157
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)292 / 292
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 292 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 2007 vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cha May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 27 $1 −$1 -70%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $1 +$1 +56%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $1 $0 -17%
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular seaso May 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $1 +$1 +81%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +72%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $1 −$1 -85%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 19, 4PM ET? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 2,130 on May 19, 4PM ET? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET May 19 $2 +$4 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3PM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +72%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET May 19 $2 +$3 +156%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET May 19 $2 +$3 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,600 on May 19, 3PM ET? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 83¢ $1 38h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 81¢ $1 38h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 71¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 70¢ $0 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 70¢ $0 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 70¢ $0 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 70¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 38¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $1 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 66¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 83¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 85¢ $1 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 89¢ $1 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 77¢ $0 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 77¢ $0 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 77¢ $0 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 77¢ $1 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 68¢ $1 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $1 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $1 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $0 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 92¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 68¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 55¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY illwill 79¢ $1 5d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $1 6d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 85¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 602 history records