Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3da…4c50
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$1,326 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,243 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,917
Realized−$1,243
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%
Chart Positions 8 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,243
7 days−$1,243
14 days−$1,243
30 days−$1,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $700 $708 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 61¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $204 +$367 +180%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $214 −$210 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% −$1,283
sports 16% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -44.0% -49.3% 20% 20% -71.5%
≤30d 5 -44.0% -49.3% 20% 20% -71.5%
≤90d 5 -44.0% -49.3% 20% 20% -71.5%
all 5 -44.0% -49.3% 20% 20% -71.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 20% -71.5%
10% -54.2% 20% -74.3%
15% -58.6% 20% -76.7%
20% -62.7% 20% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,916.91 · official $1,916.92 (match) · 16 history records