Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d9…9cc5 world 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%38W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
politics 22% −$1
other 19% −$1
sports 12% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 1% -9.6%
all 126 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses38 / 88
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage316d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $97 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $88 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $45 +$4 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $44 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $43 −$1 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $110 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 09 $2 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -9%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $175 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $41 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $25 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $5 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $45 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 493 history records