Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d5…dde9 crypto 494 markets active 14h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$609 (+9%) realized +$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%255W / 239L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day193.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$273
14 days−$347
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -8.1% -16.8% 51% 50% -19.5%
≤30d 494 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.2%
≤90d 494 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.2%
all 494 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 50% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 50% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -17.0%
15% -24.3% 40% -25.0%
20% -31.7% 34% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses255 / 239
Open positions0
Markets (closed)494 / 494
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day193.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 494 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $69 −$45 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$33 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records