Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3d2…6efc
weather · 1497 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$311 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$308 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses537 / 948
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1485 / 1497
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 12 History 1485 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$30
14 days−$223
30 days−$970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+500%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 80¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 66¢ 67¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 70¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? No 78¢ 45¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will June 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? No 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 12 $7 −$3 -49%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$6 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +527%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$283
other 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 76¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 79¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 64¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 65¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 80¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 69¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -4.6% -13.6% 52% 45% -13.4%
≤30d 1145 -19.1% -26.8% 35% 30% -26.5%
≤90d 1485 -10.0% -18.5% 36% 32% -13.1%
all 1485 -10.0% -18.5% 36% 32% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 32% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 27% -21.4%
15% -33.5% 22% -29.0%
20% -40.0% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.96 (match) · 3500 history records