Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d0…59b9 other 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-0%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%20W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$18
other 28% −$28
sports 21% −$137
crypto 9% −$7
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$2
finance 3% −$1
tech 3% −$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 77 -2.2% -11.6% 9% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 166 -1.4% -10.7% 10% 0% -10.4%
all 180 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses20 / 160
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage103d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 20 $34 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $67 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $180 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $548 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $24 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $556 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 07 $37 +$2 +6%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $289 −$2 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $36 −$3 -7%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $267 −$65 -24%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $30 7h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 7h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 15h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 97¢ $27 16h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $28 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $34 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $35 37h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 38h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 44h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 44h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $27 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $27 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $28 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $32 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.02 · official $33.02 (match) · 723 history records