Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F3 0xf3ce…f01d other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$413 (+0%) realized +$413 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1,564per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$48
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$307
politics 38% −$105
sports 14% +$192
world 3% −$10
culture 1% −$5
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -4.6% -13.7% 7% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 99 -5.6% -14.6% 5% 1% -9.8%
all 162 +4.3% -5.7% 17% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 12% -9.4%
10% -14.7% 12% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 10% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,236) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$11 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$413
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,564
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $3,804 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $2,023 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 24 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $651 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 22 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $764 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,299 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,247 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,198 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $5,919 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5,476 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $779 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $126 +$2 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,085 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,097 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,694 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,425 −$6 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,250 −$4 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $60 +$34 +57%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $8,198 −$8 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $691 −$1 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,859 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,463 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,149 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $594 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 41m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $644 2h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $645 3h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $646 20h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $647 21h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 27h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $648 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $649 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $650 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $651 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $653 4d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $654 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $111 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $763 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $764 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $767 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $768 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $765 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $781 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $782 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $767 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $768 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $769 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $770 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $770 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.29 · official $111.29 (match) · 592 history records