Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3ce…a57a sports 1033 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$93,425 (+6%) realized +$93,102 · open +$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%583W / 447L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,423per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$17,881est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,125
7 days−$4,465
14 days+$11,329
30 days−$31,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$83,707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.7% +1.1% 65% 65% -19.5%
≤30d 171 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 55% -14.3%
≤90d 715 +10.8% +0.3% 59% 58% -4.4%
all 1030 +6.6% -3.6% 57% 56% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 56% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 55% -13.5%
15% -21.2% 48% -21.9%
20% -28.9% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,117 vs −$1,273 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3,061
Realized+$93,102
Unrealized+$323
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses583 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$17,881
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1030 / 1033
History coverage135d
Avg bet$1,423
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 34¢ 100¢ $958 $2,777 +$1,819 (+190%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 61¢ 32¢ $549 $283 −$266 (-48%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Amaru Gaming 61¢ 0¢ $1,231 $1 −$1,230 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 426 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,473 +$899 +61%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $353 +$593 +168%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,263 −$1,240 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,600 −$2,569 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $478 +$207 +43%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $3,548 −$3,507 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1,332 +$901 +68%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $765 +$261 +34%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,687 −$1,672 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7,128 +$2,890 +41%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,217 +$815 +67%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $208 +$325 +156%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1,318 −$1,307 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3,283 −$3,258 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $920 −$902 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $147 −$145 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $602 +$147 +24%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $274 +$165 +60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,054 +$2,563 +36%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $1,198 −$1,189 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $434 +$170 +39%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 +$37 +76%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$219 +108%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 +$421 +206%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $207 +$94 +45%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,153 +$281 +24%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $376 +$462 +123%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $337 −$334 -99%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $149 +$75 +50%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $538 +$162 +30%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $379 +$141 +37%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $680 +$384 +56%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $756 −$748 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $874 −$861 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,376 −$1,353 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,474 +$436 +30%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $114 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,835 −$2,803 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 +$105 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $7,196 +$3,949 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $4,484 +$4,368 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $9,186 +$3,641 +40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,921 +$3,777 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,040 +$3,371 +165%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,862 −$4,797 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,607 +$3,107 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,865 +$3,539 +124%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5,846 −$5,784 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,100 +$676 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 64¢ $134 42m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 63¢ $120 42m
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 60¢ $301 42m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 34¢ $977 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 63¢ $116 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $350 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 61¢ $779 1h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 61¢ $1,310 3h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 61¢ $164 3h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $213 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $119 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $572 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $360 5h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 59¢ $1,516 6h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 58¢ $130 6h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 60¢ $339 6h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 62¢ $615 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 37¢ $353 8h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 61¢ $148 8h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 64¢ $384 8h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 61¢ $3,016 8h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $166 9h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $313 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 60¢ $157 22h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 61¢ $745 22h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 56¢ $195 22h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 54¢ $236 22h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 73¢ $310 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 70¢ $298 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 72¢ $411 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,060.96 · official $3,060.96 (match) · 2008 history records