Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf3cc…0bd1 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$271 (-20%) realized −$177 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$231
crypto 47% −$141
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.1% -3.1% 22% 22% +2.2%
≤30d 39 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 21% -5.7%
≤90d 54 -13.5% -21.8% 20% 20% -26.6%
all 60 -22.2% -29.6% 18% 18% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 18% -35.1%
10% -36.3% 18% -41.3%
15% -42.5% 18% -46.9%
20% -48.1% 17% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$15 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 49
Open positions19
Markets (closed)60 / 79
History coverage180d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $51 $65 +$13 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $106 $20 −$86 (-81%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+163%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-30%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$19 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$31 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$71 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$35 +616%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$22 +262%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$17 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$55 +1042%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $28 +$103 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$119 +226%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $44 −$43 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 15 $13 −$5 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 15 $4 +$7 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 15 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 15 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $92 −$80 -88%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 09 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 07 $23 −$22 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $13 −$12 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 07 $42 −$40 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 55m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.77 · official $184.77 (match) · 284 history records