Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3c8…a922 crypto 441 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+9%) realized +$113 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%181W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$106
other 15% +$175
finance 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +129.4% +107.5% 100% 100% +107.5%
≤30d 20 -37.3% -43.3% 25% 25% +71.8%
≤90d 435 -13.5% -21.8% 42% 37% -6.2%
all 435 -13.5% -21.8% 42% 37% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 37% -6.2%
10% -29.2% 34% -15.2%
15% -36.1% 29% -23.4%
20% -42.3% 25% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses181 / 254
Open positions6
Markets (closed)435 / 441
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $34 $51 +$17 (+49%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $31 $49 +$17 (+55%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-63%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $113 +$146 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$22 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$4 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$5 +220%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $3 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 14 $7 +$21 +282%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 14 $3 +$4 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 13 $6 +$9 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 13d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 13d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 99¢ $42 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 45¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 45¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 45¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 45¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 45¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 38¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 49¢ $11 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.95 · official $122.29 (match) · 1156 history records