Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3c8…8354 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$130 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$31
other 17% +$10
sports 11% +$33
tech 11% +$34
world 9% +$9
economics 6% +$11
politics 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 50 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage545d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 27 $140 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 27 $180 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 09 $233 +$4 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 09 $244 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 25 $230 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 07 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 07 $270 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 6? Apr 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 21 $170 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $166 +$14 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 06 $300 +$2 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 31 $277 +$12 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 09 $440 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 24 $188 +$1 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 24 $230 +$17 +8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 10 $130 +$3 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 10 $286 +$9 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 21 $130 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 18 $173 +$1 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 18 $234 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 30? Dec 16 $403 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 30 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November Nov 30 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 13 $122 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 26? Nov 13 $330 +$2 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $177 +$9 +5%
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the most st Oct 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 04 $170 $0 +0%
Will Apple launch an iPad Air on September 9? Oct 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 11? Sep 09 $171 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Sep 09 $212 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on July 9? Aug 10 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $106,000 on July 9? Aug 10 $266 +$3 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 09 $367 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down in May? Jun 06 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 06 $190 +$1 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Canada block Pornhub in the U.S. before May? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 25 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will 3 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 17 $321 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 27 $360 +$1 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 09 $320 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 12 $290 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 12 $66 +$1 +1%
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day? Feb 12 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday? Jan 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 05 $351 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 99¢ $181 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $180 17d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $174 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $233 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 99¢ $230 51d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $244 51d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $270 67d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 6? BUY Up 99¢ $120 82d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $170 82d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $190 82d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $300 88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 92¢ $145 110d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 92¢ $11 110d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 92¢ $10 110d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 96¢ $277 110d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? BUY No 99¢ $440 122d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals BUY LNG Esports 93¢ $230 137d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $188 137d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $130 157d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 160d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $286 160d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $173 192d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $234 192d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 30? BUY No 100¢ $403 209d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY No 100¢ $123 225d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $266 225d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 26? BUY No 99¢ $330 244d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $64 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.34 · official $496.34 (match) · 107 history records