Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3c7…3d9c world 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$166 (+4%) realized +$167 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$208
14 days+$214
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$90
other 11% +$104
sports 9% +$80
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +15.5% +4.5% 52% 52% +19.7%
≤30d 32 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 53% +18.3%
≤90d 32 +16.5% +5.4% 53% 53% +18.3%
all 69 +4.7% -5.3% 49% 46% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 46% -6.0%
10% -14.4% 43% -15.0%
15% -22.6% 41% -23.2%
20% -30.2% 32% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$42 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage375d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$21 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$32 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $15 +$10 +64%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$24 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$69 +206%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$17 +49%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $37 −$3 -9%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 04 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? Jan 17 $52 −$32 -60%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 17 $68 −$44 -65%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $160 −$108 -67%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $232 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $35 +$13 +37%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jan 17 $99 −$24 -24%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $53 −$33 -62%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $25 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $42 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $415 −$392 -94%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $219 +$564 +258%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026? Jan 08 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026? Jan 07 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026? Jan 05 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? Jan 04 $6 +$9 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4m
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $39 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $50 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $15 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $29 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 42h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $47 3d
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.95 · official $95.95 (match) · 240 history records