Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F3 0xf3c3…a3d2 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,175 (+13%) realized +$3,176 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$607est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$142
14 days−$162
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$2,891
other 2% −$57
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.0% -38.4% 22% 22% -31.0%
≤30d 17 -18.7% -26.4% 35% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 51 -16.1% -24.1% 51% 45% +1.2%
all 51 -16.1% -24.1% 51% 45% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 45% +1.2%
10% -31.3% 35% -8.5%
15% -38.0% 22% -17.3%
20% -44.0% 12% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$152 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$3,176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$607
Open positions12
Markets (closed)51 / 63
History coverage83d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $50 $42 −$7 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $32 $38 +$6 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $18 $29 +$12 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $11 +$3 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $10 −$6 (-39%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 45¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $20 −$5 -24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $61 −$9 -14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $51 −$17 -33%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $101 +$26 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -57%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $111 −$11 -10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $76 +$24 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $53 −$44 -84%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $54 +$34 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $54 +$38 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$42 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $850 +$100 +12%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20 $71 +$7 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $100 +$50 +50%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $490 +$310 +63%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $890 +$60 +7%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $10 −$10 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $750 +$10 +1%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $1,350 +$930 +69%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $440 −$440 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $1,140 −$410 -36%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $840 −$840 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $550 +$150 +27%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $560 +$120 +21%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $960 +$188 +20%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $800 +$199 +25%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $620 +$700 +113%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $1,080 +$280 +26%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $5,550 +$2,324 +42%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $1,300 +$460 +35%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $1,500 +$372 +25%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $1,000 +$170 +17%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $10 +$9 +93%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $10 +$4 +44%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $11 −$4 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $15 56m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $20 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies $4 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 20¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 68¢ $75 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ $34 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ $51 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $51 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 87¢ $127 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 68¢ $101 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $48 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 15h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $125 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 76¢ $101 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $51 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 37¢ $42 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 25¢ $10 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $51 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 83¢ $58 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 71¢ $50 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 75¢ $76 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $9 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.01 · official $215.90 (match) · 337 history records