Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F3 0xf3c2…e6f6 crypto 1560 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%1016W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$4
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$98
weather 1% −$6
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -1.1% -10.5% 73% 71% -10.3%
≤30d 428 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 68% -11.8%
≤90d 1528 -1.2% -10.7% 66% 64% -10.7%
all 1559 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 64% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 64% -10.8%
10% -19.4% 58% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 45% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1016 / 543
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1559 / 1560
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $1.55 (match) · 3154 history records