Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3c0…e423
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$80
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 97¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $36 −$3 -8%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$1
crypto 37% $0
world 5% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
all 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -12.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.13 · official $80.13 (match) · 21 history records