Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf3be…bfcf sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-10%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$6
crypto 17% −$8
other 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 58% -18.7%
≤30d 26 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 58% -18.7%
≤90d 26 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 58% -18.7%
all 26 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 58% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 58% -18.7%
10% -22.7% 46% -26.4%
15% -30.2% 31% -33.5%
20% -37.0% 27% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 31m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $3 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $5 10h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $4.67 (match) · 54 history records