Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F3 0xf3bc…1e95 world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+17%) realized +$146 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$168
sports 36% +$323
other 15% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -71.4%
≤30d 2 +18.8% +7.5% 50% 50% +76.4%
≤90d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 33% +17.2%
all 5 -38.6% -44.5% 20% 20% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 20% +7.7%
10% -49.8% 20% -2.6%
15% -54.6% 20% -12.0%
20% -59.1% 20% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$46 · ×7.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage166d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$14 -68%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $305 +$323 +106%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 27 $352 −$108 -31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 15h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $244 51d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 110d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 111d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $300 166d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 166d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.06 · official $99.06 (match) · 133 history records