Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3b9…57ec crypto 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$591 (-2%) realized −$553 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%99W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$441
7 days+$441
14 days+$441
30 days+$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$677
finance 9% +$203
tech 9% +$19
world 2% +$142
economics 2% −$378
politics 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.1% +10.5% 100% 100% +10.5%
≤30d 1 +22.1% +10.5% 100% 100% +10.5%
≤90d 128 -6.9% -15.7% 53% 50% -9.1%
all 179 -3.9% -13.0% 55% 52% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 52% -12.5%
10% -21.4% 44% -20.9%
15% -28.9% 38% -28.5%
20% -35.9% 35% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$89 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized−$553
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses99 / 80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage227d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 66¢ 65¢ $2,000 $1,962 −$38 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,994 +$441 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 06 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 03 $200 −$193 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $500 +$142 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 30 $30 −$30 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $268 −$238 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Mar 29 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$41 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$67 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$67 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$78 +155%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 29 $300 −$22 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 29 $120 −$109 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$183 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$91 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$106 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$43 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$69 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 28 $140 +$89 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 28 $200 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 28 $200 +$182 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$82 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 28 $160 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$81 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$78 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12AM ET Mar 28 $430 +$78 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2,027 58m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 87¢ $2,434 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 70¢ $982 15h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 70¢ $1,012 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $50 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $124 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $182 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $200 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 81¢ $410 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 80¢ $232 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 63¢ $500 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $100 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 78d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? SELL Down 6¢ $30 78d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? BUY Down 55¢ $268 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? SELL Down 100¢ $268 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? BUY Down 57¢ $155 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $149 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $100 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $101 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $60 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $41 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $100 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $127 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $60 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $100 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $27 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.74 · official $1,942.09 · 424 history records