Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3b7…f35e world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$184 (+1%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 48L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$159
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$167
sports 24% +$28
other 10% $0
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 37 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 5% -8.3%
all 83 +3.5% -6.3% 42% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 7% -8.3%
10% -15.3% 6% -17.0%
15% -23.5% 5% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.4 per $1 lost it wins $7.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage484d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $304 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $303 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $305 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $310 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $465 +$2 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $304 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $1,176 −$11 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $621 −$3 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $304 +$10 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $488 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $687 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $305 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $304 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $313 +$162 +52%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $352 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $197 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $202 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $415 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $208 −$2 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $378 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $198 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $197 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $121 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $24 +$7 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $88 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $157 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2,104 +$20 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,097 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $318 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 31 $21 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 29 $10 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down in May? May 29 $1 $0 -14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on May 30? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $239 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $64 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $198 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $17 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $88 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $158 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $144 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $303 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $74 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $76 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $76 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $153 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $139 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $90 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $186 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $118 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 368 history records