Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3b6…a88a sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$2
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$55
world 20% +$11
other 14% −$13
politics 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.3% -22.4% 0% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 20% 20% -24.3%
≤90d 18 -15.7% -23.8% 44% 6% -10.9%
all 18 -15.7% -23.8% 44% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 6% -10.9%
10% -31.1% 6% -19.5%
15% -37.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -43.8% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage77d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5) May 12 $460 +$5 +1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 11 $457 $0 +0%
Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5) May 11 $450 +$10 +2%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? May 10 $447 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) Apr 27 $403 +$13 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $404 $0 +0%
Spread: CSyD Macará (-1.5) Apr 16 $16 −$16 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) Apr 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-2.5) Apr 11 $275 +$14 +5%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Central Coast Mariners FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $247 +$11 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $31 2h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $32 2h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes $16 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes $15 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes $22 2d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes $22 2d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 8d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 8d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY Yes $19 8d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY Yes $18 8d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo $21 20d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo $20 20d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $40 20d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $41 20d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $41 20d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $39 20d
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5) BUY FCSB 99¢ $460 42d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $458 43d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $457 43d
Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5) BUY Como 1907 98¢ $450 44d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $446 44d
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $447 44d
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) BUY Stade Rennais FC 1901 97¢ $403 58d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $404 58d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $404 58d
Spread: CSyD Macará (-1.5) BUY CSyD Macará $8 68d
Spread: CSyD Macará (-1.5) BUY CSyD Macará $8 68d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $26 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records