Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3b5…029d sports 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,331 (-6%) realized −$1,332 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%235W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$184
14 days−$158
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,036
crypto 10% −$19
other 10% −$312
politics 5% −$25
tech 3% +$2
economics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$18
world 1% −$36
finance 1% +$2
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.6% -43.6% 45% 27% -43.4%
≤30d 44 -20.5% -28.1% 52% 32% -22.1%
≤90d 240 -9.8% -18.4% 60% 47% -16.6%
all 389 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 38% -15.3%
10% -27.2% 26% -23.4%
15% -34.2% 16% -30.8%
20% -40.6% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$1,332
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses235 / 154
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions2
Markets (closed)389 / 391
History coverage250d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$29 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $110 +$7 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$34 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $80 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $71 −$12 -17%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $90 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $81 −$59 -73%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $81 +$42 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $95 +$13 +13%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $91 +$31 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $81 +$48 +60%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 26 $20 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $45 −$44 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? May 25 $15 −$1 -6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $37 −$36 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $37 −$36 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da May 24 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 22 $47 −$46 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $56 +$93 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $22 −$21 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21? May 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $20 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $5 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $90 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $70 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $80 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $110 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $97 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $80 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 11d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 71¢ $10 11d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $81 12d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 54¢ $28 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $70 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.51 · official $80.51 (match) · 787 history records