Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3b4…81b9
sports · 5 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$38 -63%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$32
sports 25% −$2
other 17% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -93.0%
≤30d 2 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -93.0%
≤90d 2 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -93.0%
all 2 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -93.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.2% 0% -93.0%
10% -96.6% 0% -93.6%
15% -96.9% 0% -94.3%
20% -97.2% 0% -94.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.95 · official $18.95 (match) · 11 history records