Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3b2…be8d other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 29% −$13
sports 12% +$65
world 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +3.8% -6.1% 10% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×14.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage130d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $259 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $205 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $507 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $519 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $289 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $231 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $302 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 3h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $48 13h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $48 43h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 44h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $48 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $259 24d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $259 24d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $293 24d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $293 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records