Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3b1…9ca4 other 73 markets active 84d ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101,972 (-170%) realized −$101,972 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 150L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$822per market
Trades / day194.9pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33,488
7 days−$33,488
14 days−$33,488
30 days−$33,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$24,758
other 43% +$4,544
culture 0% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -71.6% -74.3% 5% 5% -87.2%
≤30d 99 -71.6% -74.3% 5% 5% -87.2%
≤90d 136 -62.8% -66.3% 8% 7% -77.0%
all 172 -31.9% -38.4% 13% 10% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.4% 10% -48.9%
10% ← realistic here -44.3% 10% -53.7%
15% -49.7% 9% -58.2%
20% -54.6% 8% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -217% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
40.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$437 vs −$423 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101,972
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 73
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$822
Trades / day194.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $1,448 −$1,462 -101%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 29 $334 −$361 -108%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars? Jun 29 $439 −$794 -181%
XRP Up or Down on September 22? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sidemen's next video get between 2.0–2.5 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $38 −$59 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11? Jun 29 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 26? Jun 29 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 29 $30 −$50 -166%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1? Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET? Jun 29 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down on October 23? Jun 29 $116 −$187 -161%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 9 awards at the Oscars? Jun 29 $36 −$56 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Jun 29 $10 +$47 +466%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $79 −$199 -251%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 29 $4 −$14 -343%
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 27? Jun 29 $0 −$433 -615614%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jun 29 $5 −$4 -72%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March Jun 29 $3 −$105 -3570%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Jun 29 $94 +$231 +246%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 16–18 million views on day 1? Jun 29 $134 −$134 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37.0 and 37.5 million views on d Jun 29 $911 −$979 -107%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Jun 29 $111 −$128 -116%
Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 32m? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18? Jun 29 $22 −$27 -125%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 29 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? Jun 29 $24 +$247 +1028%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? Jun 29 $187 +$867 +464%
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? Jun 29 $343 −$343 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 10¢ $11 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 10¢ $66 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $66 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $8 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 12¢ $31 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $6 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $0 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $3 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 24¢ $15 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $3 83d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 84d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 47 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 3¢ $67 84d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 84d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records