Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3b1…7bed other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$4
other 31% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.8%
all 52 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage278d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $22 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Jan 31 $31 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $59 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $13 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $46 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.16 · official $46.16 (match) · 224 history records