Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3ad…98d4 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$316 (+11%) realized +$243 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$2,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$281
crypto 4% −$50
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +22.3% +10.6% 50% 38% +29.1%
≤30d 8 +22.3% +10.6% 50% 38% +29.1%
≤90d 8 +22.3% +10.6% 50% 38% +29.1%
all 8 +22.3% +10.6% 50% 38% +29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 38% +29.1%
10% +0.0% 38% +16.7%
15% -9.6% 38% +5.4%
20% -18.5% 38% -4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$64 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,243
Realized+$243
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions27
Markets (closed)8 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 38h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 38h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,243.28 · official $2,242.31 (match) · 42 history records