Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3ac…c9f4
sports · 747 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,903 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,739 · open +$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$380
Realized−$1,739
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses427 / 320
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,636
Open positions2
Markets (closed)747 / 747
History coverage45d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day77.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 747 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$1,060
14 days−$596
30 days−$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 24¢ 33¢ $278 $380 +$102 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 25¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner All Gamers 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 56¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Liquid 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 11¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner XLG Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs LOS 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Red Force 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner M80 29¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 76¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 2 Winner QoR 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 65¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 21¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner paiN Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Movistar KOI 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner G2 Esports 95¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner RED Academy 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs MOUZ 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $529 +$31 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $429 +$31 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $811 −$123 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $296 +$26 +9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $426 +$78 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $298 +$149 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $434 −$34 -8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $209 +$124 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $244 +$130 +53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $234 −$96 -41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $216 −$103 -47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $209 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $651 −$446 -69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $571 −$11 -2%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $547 +$24 +4%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$73 +36%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$39 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $380 +$55 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $302 +$74 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $378 −$40 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $569 +$98 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $196 +$44 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $154 +$42 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $344 −$86 -25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $219 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $325 +$49 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $263 +$62 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $221 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $342 −$100 -29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $233 −$8 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $84 +$102 +122%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $94 +$5 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $126 +$16 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 −$3 -34%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $114 −$102 -89%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $169 −$33 -20%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $189 +$25 +13%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $226 −$127 -56%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $85 +$11 +13%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $149 −$15 -10%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $115 −$114 -100%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $111 +$3 +3%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $102 +$8 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $227 −$96 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,657
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 64¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $152 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $12 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $3 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $31 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $12 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $6 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 24¢ $57 12m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 64¢ $348 13m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $331 26m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $20 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $50 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $2 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $5 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $6 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $30 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $50 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $24 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $25 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $100 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $14 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $359 34m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $359 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -17.0% -24.9% 58% 37% -6.6%
≤30d 504 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 43% -8.2%
≤90d 747 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 42% -8.5%
all 747 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 42% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 42% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 28% -17.3%
15% -27.2% 17% -25.3%
20% -34.4% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.80 · official $379.80 (match) · 3500 history records