Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ac…db07 crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+5%) realized +$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%76W / 26L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day74.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 35% -5.3%
≤30d 102 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 35% -5.3%
≤90d 102 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 35% -5.3%
all 102 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 35% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 35% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 18% -14.4%
15% -26.0% 11% -22.6%
20% -33.2% 10% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses76 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day74.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$26 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$27 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$9 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$9 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $166 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $151 +$14 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $85 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $80 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records