Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ac…815c crypto 1648 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-2%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate90%1476W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day75.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +1.2% -8.5% 89% 51% -8.4%
≤30d 1647 -1.6% -11.0% 90% 27% -10.8%
≤90d 1647 -1.6% -11.0% 90% 27% -10.8%
all 1647 -1.6% -11.0% 90% 27% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 27% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 9% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1476 / 171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1647 / 1648
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 89¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.93 (match) · 3500 history records