trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 83% | 0% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 83% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 25 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 56% | 4% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 4% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 0% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $88 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 16 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $45 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 26 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 23 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27? | Jun 23 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | Jun 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? | Jun 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 18 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files? | Jun 17 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Jun 16 | $39 | +$7 | +19% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Jun 16 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 15 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | Jun 14 | $22 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 14 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 13 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 12 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 12 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 11 | $20 | $0 | -0% |