Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F3 0xf3a4…097f other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113,690 (-25%) realized −$114,262 · open +$572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 37L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,349per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2,285est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$12,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,853
7 days−$15,597
14 days+$1,463
30 days−$92,728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$6,427
crypto 28% −$112,141
sports 22% +$22,898
world 8% −$10,351
economics 4% +$550
tech 1% −$3,622
politics 0% −$2,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 30% -29.1%
≤30d 47 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 40% -36.7%
≤90d 62 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -34.4%
all 69 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 41% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 41% -33.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 38% -39.4%
15% -28.6% 30% -45.3%
20% -35.6% 22% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$6,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,951 vs −$5,570 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$12,962
Realized−$114,262
Unrealized+$572
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,285
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage201d
Avg bet$6,349
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $10,100 $10,627 +$527 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $2,291 $2,335 +$45 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $495 +$2,901 +586%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,027 −$163 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4,352 +$1,562 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $9,696 −$5,153 -53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5,963 +$3,759 +63%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,549 −$2,500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8,425 +$1,888 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8,974 −$7,753 -86%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $1,281 −$1,250 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6,088 +$23 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,531 −$2,500 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,027 +$1,259 +42%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3,102 −$1,080 -35%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $3,033 −$3,000 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,012 −$978 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,068 +$5,131 +126%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,449 −$375 -26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2,396 −$1,378 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,052 +$2,640 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,535 −$1,535 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,537 +$7,447 +484%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,534 −$1,500 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,067 +$3,457 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7,587 −$3,659 -48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,721 −$2,700 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,010 +$380 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9,068 +$3,191 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,023 +$1,255 +62%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,023 −$802 -78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,078 +$4,504 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,868 +$5,383 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21,202 −$8,087 -38%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,029 −$772 -75%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,072 +$134 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5,370 −$5,300 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $115,263 −$112,303 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $2,548 −$96 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5,129 +$7,119 +139%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $10,237 +$9,649 +94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $2,040 +$4,051 +198%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10,171 +$11,415 +112%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $7,244 +$2,276 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,055 −$2,000 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $5,047 +$2,250 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $3,028 17m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 8¢ $864 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,644 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $392 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $502 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,858 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 48¢ $3,047 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $4,352 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 47¢ $4,330 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $9,696 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $536 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,549 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $3,072 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,427 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,405 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,050 3d
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,281 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $3,629 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,894 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $3,837 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,037 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,531 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,025 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,904 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,046 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,254 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,272 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,962.29 · official $12,962.29 (match) · 236 history records