Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3a3…d117 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$941 (-10%) realized −$956 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$598
7 days−$549
14 days−$512
30 days−$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1,244
sports 24% +$119
world 5% +$173
crypto 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 35% -14.9%
≤30d 101 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 101 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 38% -18.8%
all 101 -16.3% -24.3% 41% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 38% -18.8%
10% -31.6% 30% -26.5%
15% -38.2% 26% -33.6%
20% -44.2% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$50 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$956
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 60
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage20d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 77¢ 100¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $118 $107 −$11 (-9%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Second half draw? Jun 20 $34 +$16 +48%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$7 -66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +101%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $202 +$89 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -92%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -65%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $101 −$51 -50%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $253 −$190 -75%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$30 -30%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $306 +$56 +18%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$146 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $115 +$94 +81%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $277 −$12 -4%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 −$9 -22%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $211 −$208 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$98 -64%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$35 -68%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -76%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 94¢ $100 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $3 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Second half draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 79¢ $50 4h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $291 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Team to Take First Corner BUY Mexico 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $0 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 65¢ $10 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 35h
Colombia to win the second half? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.14 · official $343.14 (match) · 232 history records