Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf3a1…6b7d other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1
world 24% +$1
crypto 15% $0
politics 10% $0
economics 5% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.7% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 45 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage464d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $41 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in June 2025? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $12 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 06 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 2m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $41 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $18 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $22 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $41 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $25 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $16 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $29 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $29 16d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $4 343d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $11 343d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 343d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $12 343d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 343d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 343d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 97¢ $12 343d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 96¢ $12 343d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.63 · official $41.86 (match) · 104 history records