Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F3 0xf3a0…3236 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1002d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$209 (-5%) realized −$426 · open +$217
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$3,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$305
politics 2% +$60
crypto 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.4% -41.5% 0% 0% -40.8%
≤30d 3 -35.4% -41.5% 0% 0% -40.8%
≤90d 11 -74.0% -76.5% 0% 0% -59.1%
all 15 -55.7% -59.9% 13% 13% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.9% 13% -39.0%
10% -63.8% 7% -44.8%
15% -67.3% 7% -50.1%
20% -70.5% 7% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$38 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1002d coverage
Net worth$3,286
Realized−$426
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)15 / 26
History coverage1002d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $501 $633 +$132 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $357 $509 +$152 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $423 $358 −$65 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $256 $308 +$51 (+20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $289 −$61 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $327 $282 −$45 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $185 $274 +$89 (+48%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $232 $178 −$54 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $146 $153 +$7 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $120 +$28 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$50 -49%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $122 −$34 -28%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $129 −$38 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $3 $0 -8%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $203 −$201 -99%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 26 $498 −$13 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $105 +$62 +59%
LayerZero airdrop by Oct 31? Nov 01 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $141 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $122 34d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 34d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $283 34d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 34d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $360 34d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 56d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 56d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $45 68d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 68d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 68d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $115 68d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $121 68d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $152 68d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $193 68d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $207 68d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 72d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 74d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,286.05 · official $3,286.05 (match) · 143 history records