trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -35.4% | -41.5% | 0% | 0% | -40.8% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -35.4% | -41.5% | 0% | 0% | -40.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -74.0% | -76.5% | 0% | 0% | -59.1% |
| all | 15 | -55.7% | -59.9% | 13% | 13% | -39.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -59.9% | 13% | -39.0% |
| 10% | -63.8% | 7% | -44.8% |
| 15% | -67.3% | 7% | -50.1% |
| 20% | -70.5% | 7% | -55.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $501 | $633 | +$132 (+26%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 18¢ | $357 | $509 | +$152 (+42%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 13¢ | $423 | $358 | −$65 (-15%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 11¢ | $256 | $308 | +$51 (+20%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $350 | $289 | −$61 (-18%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 10¢ | $327 | $282 | −$45 (-14%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 10¢ | $185 | $274 | +$89 (+48%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $200 | $182 | −$18 (-9%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $232 | $178 | −$54 (-23%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $146 | $153 | +$7 (+5%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $92 | $120 | +$28 (+31%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $103 | −$50 | -49% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $122 | −$34 | -28% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $129 | −$38 | -29% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? | Apr 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? | Apr 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 03 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Mar 31 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Mar 31 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $203 | −$201 | -99% |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 26 | $498 | −$13 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $105 | +$62 | +59% |
| LayerZero airdrop by Oct 31? | Nov 01 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |