Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf39f…8d53 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$268 (+3%) realized +$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate86%31W / 5L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$4
other 31% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 86% 67% -11.4%
≤30d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 86% 67% -11.4%
≤90d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 86% 67% -11.4%
all 36 +13.8% +3.0% 86% 67% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 67% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 56% -19.9%
15% -15.9% 42% -27.6%
20% -24.1% 14% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$354 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses31 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $897 −$769 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $804 +$96 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $472 +$332 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $301 +$171 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $127 −$124 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $810 −$800 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $604 +$62 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $605 +$70 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $508 +$133 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$24 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $274 +$68 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $254 +$67 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 7¢ $128 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $897 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $900 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $804 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $472 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $472 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $301 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $810 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $604 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $605 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records