Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf39e…a407 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,095per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$18
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 8 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage223d
Avg bet$2,095
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $61 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $61 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 24 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 27 $18,477 −$19 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 100¢ $1 87d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 99d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $61 105d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 117d
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $117 118d
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $117 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $18,458 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18,477 146d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.53 · official $68.53 (match) · 17 history records